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Unexpected crises such as the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion war have shaken the international security environment in recent years.
“This is the biggest disruption since the end of the Cold War. And of course, this disruption also affects Finland. At Sitra, we wanted to tackle this topic with foresight. Navigating through this disruption requires exceptional foresight and adaptability from Finnish society,” says Sitra’s Director of Foresight and Training, Veera Heinonen.
Sitra launched a survey at the end of spring 2024, looking at the transformation of the security environment as a societal phenomenon from multiple perspectives. The guiding idea was that during overlapping crises, it is important to look further into the future. One key question has been what short- and especially long-term developments relevant to Finland are currently underway.
The preliminary findings of the project have now been compiled into a new type of foresight review. The review examines the international security environment transformation as a broader societal issue than those of overall security or readiness – phenomena linked to power, economy, technology, nature and people.
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The foresight review presents five development trends defining the transformation of the international security environment and the overall picture they create. At the heart of the transformation is the fragmentation and undermining of the international system. The accelerating struggle over the future direction of the international system is increasingly being fought in geopolitics, economy, technology and people’s minds. At the same time, interlinked environmental crises are pushing the world into an era of unprecedented insecurity and uncertainty.
The foresight review also highlights tensions related to development trends as well as the questions what if? and how? that reveal the breadth of the security phenomenon as a societal issue, and prompt us to reflect on our own agency in promoting security.
The aim of the review is not to provide unequivocal answers to complex questions. Instead, the goal is to build a shared situational and future picture of the security environment transformation through foresight methods to support diverse societal debate and decision-making.
“We hope the review can give decision-makers, organisations, businesses and all of us tools to better understand the overall picture of the security environment transformation. In these times, we need bold, constructive and diverse security and future discussions. Hopefully, our work will help broaden the conversation,” Heinonen says.
Sitra’s foresight reviews focus on topics significant for Finland’s future, aiming to explore opportunities for further work either within Sitra or with partners.
