Transformation of the security environment

Finland’s security environment is being disrupted in ways we have never seen before. What does the current state of the security environment and its possible futures look like from Finland’s perspective? How might this transformation affect Finland and Finnish society over different time frames? How should Finland prepare and adapt to ensure the foundations of security in both the short and long term?

What is it about?

In recent years, crises such as the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war of aggression have shaken the international security environment. However, these events are not merely isolated and unexpected disruptions, after which we can return to a pre-crisis “old normal”. Instead, the security environment is undergoing a deep and long-term transformation driven by global, interwoven changes such as the ecological crisis, shifts in global power relations and intensifying great-power competition.

This transformation also affects Finland and navigating it successfully will require Finland to demonstrate exceptional foresight and adaptability. How should Finland prepare for risks and threats to ensure security in the short term? And how should Finnish society transform to build the foundations for a secure future in the long term?

To explore these questions, Sitra has launched a foresight project that examines the transformation of the security environment from multiple perspectives, considering security as a societal phenomenon through the lenses of power, the economy, people, technology and nature. The goal of this project is not to provide definitive answers, but rather to support inclusive societal debate and decision-making by developing a shared understanding of the security landscape at hand and in the future.

In a democratic country like Finland, there is a positive feedback loop between democracy and security: the goal of security is not only to protect democracy from internal and external threats, but a pluralistic democracy itself also enhances societal foresight and resilience, thereby laying the foundations for a more secure future.

Where are we now?

In the first phase of the project, we conducted a background study based on expert interviews, and a review of foresight and background literature related to the transformation of the security environment. The objective of this phase was to answer the question: “What is changing right now?” This involved identifying the ongoing changes and developments driving the transformation of the security environment, and the tensions within and between these developments.

Preliminary findings from the first phase were published in a foresight review in December 2024 and discussed at the National Foresight Network’s Foresight Friday event on 13 December 2024.

In the next phases of the project, we will ask “How are these changes interpreted?” to explore the assumptions, framings and narratives surrounding the transformation of the security environment. Another guiding question will be: “What possible futures exist, and what might they look like across different time frames?” This will open perspectives on alternative futures for the security environment and their potential impacts on Finland and Finnish society.

What have we already done?

We analysed President Sauli Niinistö’s recent security report through a foresight lens. Our blog post on this analysis can be read here: President Niinistö’s security report overlooks the following three tensions.

We provided a statement concerning the Security Strategy for Society (in Finnish)