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Weak signals from the future

Guide to detection and interpretation

Writers

Lilli Poussa and Terhi Ylikoski

Published

What?

You are holding a guide on how to detect and interpret weak signals. With the guide, you can build your own process for working with weak signals or just use its individual tips or tools.

For whom?

This guide is intended for anyone interested in detecting and interpreting weak signals. Previous experience about foresight is not necessary. You might work on a company strategy, think about the future of your hobby group or practise foresight in the public sector. Detecting and interpreting weak signals can be useful in a wide range of roles and situations.

Why?

The future is often surprisingly surprising. We are constantly faced with things and phenomena that we could not foresee or expect. That is why we need the ability to broaden our thoughts about what may lie ahead in the future.

Weak signals provide one way to do this. They help to identify emerging changes, prepare for surprises and challenge assumptions about the future. Weak signals can also help us evaluate our current choices and actions. In addition, they also encourage us to innovate when we identify phenomena that we have not encountered before.

Weak signals can be utilised in many different ways: when preparing a strategy, brainstorming for a new kind of action or introducing preparedness measures. They can be employed in environmental scanning, while analysing current changes and considering the effects of signals on society, our own organisation or the industry. Weak signals should also be used to challenge assumptions about the future. They help us imagine alternative futures and stretch our thinking about what the future could be.

Weak signals are useful in many respects

Identify the first signs of change

Weak signals provide a tool to look at current changes from a new kind of perspective. This is because they are basically things that surprise and confuse us, prompting us to reflect on what is changing or different from before. In addition, they challenge our assumptions about what is “true” or “normal.”

Imagine alternative futures

Weak signals provide material for speculating on different futures, i.e. boldly imagining different alternative developments. For each interesting signal, it is worth asking the question: what alternative futures do the signals open? Among others, one can ask what the world, its structures, environment and people would look like.  What would change if the signal became more common? It is especially useful to consider several different trends that the same signal could trigger when it becomes common.

Supplementing the trend analysis

Trends tell about phenomena that we already see around us and that are mostly measurable. If you focus on trends only, you can get stuck in current changes and fail to notice emerging phenomena. Therefore, it is worth supplementing the trend analysis with weak signals. Sometimes it is useful to identify weak signals associated with a particular trend and consider how they affect the trend. Signals can give an indication of possible counter-trends, or they can be used to identify new features in trends. For example, perfume launched by a luxury brand for babies as a weak signal challenges the trend of people’s growing desire to avoid unnecessary chemicals. At the same time, it can be seen as bringing new features to the trend of commercialising childhood.

Challenge the strategy or plans

Strategy work is often built on megatrends and an analysis of the operating environment.  In that case, there may be a risk that we fail to notice some emerging changes. One value of weak signals lies in that they challenge our thinking about what we consider likely or possible in the future. With regard to interesting signals, it is worth asking: what if the identified weak signal became mainstream? How would it challenge our organisation, its strategy and plans? Or what kind of opportunities could arise from them?

How?

The guide is divided into three parts: preparation, scanning of weak signals and interpretation of signals.

1. Preparation

Topic definition and identification of participants, as well as the choice of documentation method.

2. Scanning

Scanning signals from different sources.

3. Interpretation

Interpretation of signals: what do signals tell us about the present and the future?

1. Preparation

Define your scope

Weak signals can be searched without any particular scope, on any topic, or you can choose a specific theme to focus on. Suitably sized topics include the future of civil society or the future of Finland’s energy policy.

However, if you decide to narrow down the topic, do look for signals broadly around the topic – even surprising things will affect the future of the topic you choose. By limiting the topic too strictly, interesting signals are easily excluded from the observations.

Signals about technological trends, for example, may be relevant for the future of civil society, and signals about changes in human interaction may in turn be reflected in the national energy policy.

Invite others to join

In the search for weak signals, you can get going even alone. However, crowdsourcing the scanning is worthwhile, as a larger group of observers guarantees more diverse perspectives on the world. The more diverse the group making observations, the more diverse the set of signals.

You can agree on a two-week or one-month period, for example, when you scan signals together. The operating model can also be made permanent.

The observation of signals can also be done in joint workshops, though it should be noted that scanning takes time and may not succeed right away. 

Set up a place for signals

Weak signals can be stored in different ways. As a documentation platform, you should choose an app familiar to the participants, which everyone can easily also access on mobile devices. This way, signals can be documented as soon as they are spotted, regardless of place. Padlet, Teams or any free online app like Google Docs, for example, can be a viable solution.

When scanning signals, there is no need to think too much about what kind of futures they could lead to, as the observation and interpretation of signals are two different work phases. It is also a good idea not to make the documentation of signals too complicated: often it is enough to write down the title, a short description and the source of the signal, such as a link to a piece of news. You can also use the PESTE classification in the signal documentation phase, which guides you to look at the operating environment from different perspectives, such as economic, environmental and political.

2. Scanning signals

Detecting and interpreting weak signals requires expanding thinking and reaching beyond the familiar ground – constant curiosity, looking where we do not usually look. The idea is to identify small symptoms of change that easily go unnoticed.

Where can weak signals be found?

When looking for weak signals, it is advisable to follow a wide range of different media and social media channels. It is a good idea to familiarise yourself with what people around you – artists, researchers, activists, entrepreneurs – are talking about right now. Sometimes a weak signal can be found nearby if you take a break from your mobile phone.

What can weak signals be?

Weak signals can be concrete things like legislation, technology, natural phenomena, products, services or events. But they can also be new values, opinions, ideas, gestures, world views. New and surprising phenomena that make you stop and ask yourself or a friend: what did I just see?

The signal can also take many forms. It can be a post on social media, newspaper news, a seminar speech, a friend’s comment, a colleague’s new title or even people’s behaviour in a public place. Or something entirely else.

A weak signal can be for example:

  • Technology
  • Daily habit
  • Behaviour
  • Gesture
  • Opinion
  • Idea, innovation
  • Proposal
  • Word, term, concept
  • Business model
  • Art, culture
  • Research
  • Natural phenomenon
  • Activism
  • Pilot
  • Statute, policy measure
  • Expression
  • Value, ideal, world view
  • Product
  • Service
  • Event

Practical tips for finding weak signals

  • Get a magazine you do not normally read and read it from cover to cover.
  • Choose a radio station you would not normally choose and listen curiously to conversations, advertisements, etc.
  • Search online for a foreign media website and read the news of the day.
  • Talk to a person with whom you usually have no contact and whose everyday reality is different from your own (e.g. a different life situation, profession, special field, etc.).
  • Talk to a person of different age and ask what things are topical in their social media feed.
  • Actively seek out of your own bubble on social media. Follow new topics, conversations, groups or people.
  • Get acquainted with the latest research projects or results in a discipline you are not familiar with.
  • Read science fiction literature and identify images of the future  that surprise you.
  • Look at the media you normally follow with futures lens. Do you find weak signals in a familiar newsfeed?

Weak signals explorer

The explorer for observing weak signals consists of four questions that figuratively direct thinking to new orbits, further away from the areas of our everyday observation. The idea behind the questions is to guide us to look for topics and areas that we may not necessarily contemplate on daily and thus identify weak signals. The explorer directs you to look further, beneath the surface, into oddities and taboos.

  1. Somewhere else: What has happened somewhere else that is hard to imagine here?
  2. Something that a lot of people do not know yet: What is at the forefront of development or is still bubbling under the surface?
  3. Something strange: What is confusing, surprising or makes you laugh?
  4. Something that is difficult to talk about: What is forbidden or difficult to take up? What is taboo or stirs strong emotions?

The probe can be used to support one’s own observation, but also in workshops. However, it is good to remember that sometimes the observation of signals takes time and may not succeed right way as a task assigned in the workshop but may require some warming up.

Read more about the explorer and download the template. Weak signals explorer – Sitra

How to identify a weak signal?

The surprising nature or weirdness of a weak signal always depends on the observer – one person’s weak signal is another person’s mainstream behaviour. The focus of the search, the methods of observation, as well as the observer’s world view, values, attitudes, perspectives and interests affect the kinds of weak signals we identify around us.

If you think that you have detected a weak signal, show it to a friend. If they also find it surprising, interesting or thought-provoking, it has earned its place in the signal collection.

If more weak signals on the same topic are found, it can be concluded at the interpretation stage that the phenomenon is significant or a new trend is emerging.

Weak signal observation is affected by:

  • Search focus: Where are signals looked for?
  • Methods of observation: How do you look for signals?
  • Observer: Through what kind of lenses does the observer look at the world? What are their values, attitudes and interests? 

Thinking is always inevitably personal and skewed. Among others, signal observation is affected by:

  • language
  • gender
  • prevailing culture
  • age
  • experiences
  • place of residence
  • political orientation
  • state of health
  • stage of life
  • social class
  • family, next of kin, friends
  • education, competence
  • hobbies
  • occupation, work role.

3. Interpretation of signals

After the preparation and gathering of the signals, one reaches perhaps the most interesting phase, i.e. the interpretation of the signals: what do they tell us about the future and how should we respond to them?

It is a good idea to start the interpretation of signals by grouping them together. What kind of larger groupings or phenomena do the signals form? An individual signal can potentially only be a coincidence, but by grouping the signals, it is possible to get to grips with social phenomena and the initial symptoms of change. Multiple signals from the same phenomenon validate the existence of the phenomenon.

At that point, you should be creative and avoid the most obvious categories. For example: if you resist the temptation to bundle a signal related to technology together with other technology related signals, and instead look for linkages with signals related to e.g. values or behaviour, you might identify completely new phenomena.

If the scanning of signals has been done within a specific scope (for example, the future of civil society or the future of Finnish energy policy), the interpretation will focus on what these signals mean from the point of view of the chosen scope.

In this guide, we present two tools for interpreting weak signals. The first focuses on looking at the first symptoms of change, while the second speculates on alternative futures based on signals. The tools work as independently, but they can also be used together. In that case, you should start with the First Symptoms of Change tool and only then move on to speculation.

Tool: First symptoms of change

This tool can be used to identify the first symptoms of changes and analyse what phenomenon the signal tells about. In addition, the tool can be used to complement trend analysis. 

First, select the signal or a related set of signals that you want to analyse. After that, proceed in accordance with the questions in the template, discussing together and documenting the most important highlights of the discussion to the template. In the “What this means for us” section, decide whether you will look at individuals, your own organisation, your industry or society as a whole, for example.

After the work, summarise, identify the necessary measures or responsible persons as appropriate. You can also have a reflection discussion using the questions on page X.

Download the tool here: First symptoms of change – Sitra

Tool: Speculation on signals

 As its name suggests, this tool can be used to speculate on alternative futures: what would the world look like if some signals were mainstream?

First, select the signal or a related set of signals that you want to analyse. After that, proceed in accordance with the questions in the template, discussing together and documenting the most important highlights of the discussion to the template.

After the work, summarise as appropriate, identify the necessary measures or responsible persons. You can also have a reflection discussion using the questions on page X.

Download the tool here: https://www.sitra.fi/en/cases/speculate-on-futures/

What then?

After interpreting the signals, the question arises: what then? The final step is in fact to consider whether the scanned and interpreted signals require some kind of action. It is impossible to give a single correct answer, because both the perception, interpretation and significance of signals always depend on the situation and the observer.

It may be that working with weak signals will result in the need for immediate action. For example, the company’s business is immediately directed to a new market area, the educational institution updates its degree programme or the agency prepares for new types of risks.  It may also be that when working with weak signals, we have identified a phenomenon that we want to investigate further or at least want it to be monitored. On the other hand, it may also be that the weak signals observed are not interpreted as relevant, at least not for the time being, and no action is taken.

Questions to consider:

  • What new things do you understand about your operating environment?
  • How should you change or develop activities in the light of the signals?
  • How do you prepare for the challenges indicated by the signals, and how do you seize new opportunities?
  • What did you learn about the perception, interpretation and use of weak signals?
  • If you have also worked with trends or megatrends, do the signals challenge the conclusions you have drawn from them?

Whatever the outcome, working together on future issues is significant in itself. It will improve foresight expertise and culture, as well as broaden thinking about possible different futures.

Glossary

Foresight

Identifying factors influencing the future, exploring alternative futures and defining measures to achieve the desired future. Foresight supports decision-making about the future, which inevitably involves uncertainty. Foresight does not aim to accurately predict the future.

Weak signal

The first symptom of change or a sign of an emerging phenomenon that may be significant in the future (Hiltunen 2020).  A weak signal is surprising to the interpreter, forcing them to challenge assumptions about the present, and therefore being often difficult to notice or easy to ignore. It prompts one to ask: “What if?”

Megatrend

A long-term, slowly evolving and often interconnected major phenomenon that do not change overnight, a broad arc of change, such as an ecological sustainability crisis. Megatrends are often seen as happening on a global level and the trend is often believed to continue in the same direction.

Trend

A trend, a currently visible direction of change. Trends can vary by region and change even in the short term. It prompts one to ask: “What’s next?”

About the authors

Lilli Poussa works as a specialist in Sitra’s foresight team that produces forward-looking foresight information. In her work, she anticipates phenomena that affect the future, from megatrends to weak signals. Lilli specialises in developing various tools and methods for supporting future-oriented thinking. Lilli is a Master of Political Science and a service.

Terhi Ylikoski works as a specialist in Sitra’s foresight team. She wants to accelerate societal change towards a sustainable future. In her work, s

Publication details

Title

Weak signals from the future

Subtitle

Guide to detection and interpretation

Authors

Lilli Poussa and Terhi Ylikoski

Place of publication

Helsinki

Year of publication

2025

Publisher

Sitra

Outlook

28

ISBN (PDF)

ISBN 978-952-347-398-0

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